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Repeatable risk events don’t have a ‘likelihood’

Risk events that can repeat don’t have a likelihood. They will happen, the only question is when. Events that can repeat have a frequency, not a likelihood. If you confuse frequency with likelihood, you’re confusing risk with cost. A typical repeatable risk event Other repeatable risk events The problem with repeatable risk events Why repeatable…

Worst case analysis: When, why, and how

What is the reasonable worst case? Consequence and likelihood for the reasonable worst case Acceptability of the reasonable worst case Acceptability of other cases Question for risk experts You’ve come up with a risk: a way in which something uncertain may affect achievement of your objectives. You want to assess your risk for consequence or…

When do the consequences follow from a risk event?

The standard view: Consequences follow at the end of the risk scenario Another view: Consequences follow at the end of the planning period Consequence scales in each view Other ways that the view matters Conclusion Question for experts Something unexpected happens. The immediate effects are alarming. There are also long-term effects. Which are the ‘consequences’…

Risk consequences and enterprise success

‘Consequence criteria’ ‘Objectives’ Choices about consequence criteria Representing ‘all’ dimensions of success in consequence types Ignoring success in consequence types Conclusion Sidebars: Reasons for ignoring success Representing selected success dimensions other than the main purpose Representing only the unique purpose in consequence types Consequence types that carefully step around the main purpose In the last…

Risk impact scale vs. achievement of objectives

My last post argued that objectives are preferred outcomes from an activity, and that risk consequences are the differences in outcomes that the activity might reach, given the uncertainties. The key word was are. Not predict, indicate, or link with, but are. By ‘outcome’ I meant the achievement or non-achievement of organisation objectives. I also…

Risk management and middle management, Part 2: Where you come in

This article was updated 23 March 2018 based on comments by Rory Kilburn, Kat Kapuscinski, Pat Lisk and Clive Martin, in the LinkedIn Group ISO 31000 Risk Management Standard. Changed text looks like this, and you see credits by hovering the mouse over changed text. Part 1 set out the basic reason to look at…

Risk management and middle management, Part 1: What and why

This article was updated 23 March 2018 based on comments by Rory Kilburn, Kat Kapuscinski, Pat Lisk and Clive Martin, in the LinkedIn Group ISO 31000 Risk Management Standard. Changed text looks like this, and you see credits by hovering the mouse over changed text. Every middle manager does some ‘risk management’: at least once…