Repeatable risk events, frequency, and likelihood: topic index page

Repeatable risk events don’t have a ‘likelihood’

The story: a repeatable risk event The solution How to assess outcome likelihood, starting from event frequency Variable size events, in unknown numbers Questions for experts

Likelihood of a future event…

Theory

How to turn an event frequency into likelihood

…count within a range, from a long-term event frequency

…count within a range, from a history of events

…size total within a range

Excel

…in Excel.

…in Excel.

…in Excel.

Repeatable risk events don’t have a ‘likelihood’

The story: a repeatable risk event The solution How to assess outcome likelihood, starting from event frequency Variable size events, in unknown numbers Questions for experts

How to turn an event frequency into likelihood

Overview of the series

What to read first: Repeatable risk events don’t have a ‘likelihood’

About the Clear Lines Excel implementation

What to read first: How to turn an event frequency into likelihood

Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from long-term event frequency

What to read first: About the Clear Lines Excel implementation How to turn an event frequency into likelihood

Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a long-term event frequency: in Excel

What to read first: Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from long-term event frequency

Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a history of events

First stage: the likelihood distribution Second stage: trials Comparing the trial distributions with the simple Poisson distribution Third and final stage: likelihoods for ranges Conclusions you may draw Count ranges and risk decisions

What to read first: Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a long-term event frequency: in Excel Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from long-term event frequency

Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a history of events: in Excel

First stage: the likelihood distribution Second stage: trials Third and final stage: likelihoods for ranges

What to read first: Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a history of events

Likelihood of a future event size total within a range

Conceive a distribution for event sizes Find the size distribution parameters A lookup table for your event size distribution Include sizes in trials Find the proportion of trials that will push your buttons Conclusions you may draw

What to read first: Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a history of events: in Excel Likelihood of a future event count within a range, from a history of events

Likelihood of a future event size total within a range: in Excel

Find the size distribution parameters Include sizes in trials Find the proportion of trials that will push your buttons

What to read first: Likelihood of a future event size total within a range

Some results from Monte Carlo trials of total event sizes

Comments on the table of results

What to read first: Likelihood of a future event size total within a range: in Excel Likelihood of a future event size total within a range